Shopify now has the Complete Product

assembly-smartphone-photography-photograph-958026.jpeg  This website(Econothon II) is focussed on new and technical matters.And this is our first analysis of Shopify;it fits the category on both accounts.Shopify now handles all aspects of online shopping.It’s recent acquisition of 6 River Systems strengthens their presence in warehouse solutions.And now they handle shipping (Shopify Shipping),emails (Shopify Emails),cash advances (Shopify Capital).And more and more consumers are doing this online with mobile devices like the one shown above.Shopify tells shareholders in their Q4 report that 80% of traffic and 68% of orders are made from mobile devices.

    2019 Annual Highlights

   Shopify now has a market capitalization of about $103 billion and has now a significant impact on many Canadians.Online shopping has become more important in Canada,especially with the virus pandemic.And 2019 was a good year for Shopify;it had$1.6 billion in revenues for a 47% increase over 2018.Subscription revenues grew 38% to $642 million and merchant solutions grew 54%.Adjusted operating income was 3% of revenues or $46 million compared to $17 million in 2018.Adjusted net income was only $34 million or $.30 per share versus $44 million or $.43 per share in 2018.The price/earnings ratio is infinitely high at it’s present price but still improved over 2016 when adjusted net income was zero.Shopify is focused on the growth of revenues and operating income not net income per share. Investors are buying growth-plenty of growth!

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        2019 Business Highlights

 This blog feels that 2019 has been somewhat of a milestone for Shopify.And the acquisition of 6 River Systems was equivalent to adding a more solid foundation to an already solid building.Also Shopify Payments is now operational in 15 countries.Shopify tells shareholders in it’s quarterly report that the number of consumers increased by 37% in 2019.And as stated already – mobile devices account for 68% of orders and 80% of it’s traffic.         aaeaaqaaaaaaaattaaaajgmznzizyzgzltqxyjctndg2mi05ndy3ltczn2qxnty3ody1zg

     Business Summary

 Shopify has been adding to it’s product for some time.Each individual component has been enhanced or improved.The addition of 6 River Systems strengthens components on either side of their “warehousing solution”.So that response time has improved and is still improving.Shopify expects a 30% increase in revenues in 2020 and another operational loss.And more importantly expects tp spend another $80 million on improving the efficiency of their operation (just like the men above improving power lines).This blog would like to see the acquisition of a small  tech. company that handles emails to improve this aspect of their operation.But even if it does not, Shopify is indeed now the complete product.  

Atco makes as much from Utility sale as from Operations

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   On October 31 Atco released it’s third quarter report.It was a somewhat disorganized report but it showed impressive performance.It showed adjusted earnings of $74 million or $.65 per share compared to $87 million in Q3 2018.But this did not include the earnings from the sale of it’s 2100MW fuel-based electricity generation portfolio.That amounted to another $74 million of net proceeds but because Atco is a regulated utility a capital gain cannot be added to adjusted earnings.However this gain is captured in shareholder earnings;for 9 months the earnings available to shareholders went from $193 million to $430 million.So earnings available to shareholders went from $1.91 per share to $4.28 per share.

     Earnings by Division

Atco has four main divisions: Canadian Utilities,Atco Investments,Structures and Logistics and Neptume Ports.The third quarter showed that lower earnings came  Canadian Utilities and Atco Investments.However this was offset by higher earnings in their Structures and Logistics division.This division sells modular structures to companies doiung construction work in the field.This includes modular structures used in Austaralia as well as work for the LNG Cedar Valley Lodge in British Columbia.Adjusted earnimngs for the third quarter was $74 million compared to $87 million in 2018.While 9 month adkjusted earnings went  from $264 million to $247 million.

 

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         A large Capital Gain

     A major event that took place in this quarter was the sale of it’s entire 2100MW fossil-fuel electricity generation facility.And it received $821 million of total proceeds.This blog estimated that it had about a 50% ownership in the project.This resulted in a capital gain of $73 million after tax.However because Atco is a regulated utility the capital gain must be excluded from adjusted earnings.Consequently 9 month adjusted earnings went from $264 million in 2018 to $247 million for 2019.But because of the capital gain earnings for shareholders went from$193 million to $430 million.

     Conclusion

 Atco shareholders  saw the capital gain but did not react favorably.The share price has fallen slightly from $51 to a range around $49 per share.Perhaps this is because they did not appreciate the price for their assets sale.At $821 million this is only $4 million per  10 MW.Atco will have to be very clever to replace this generating power with the total proceeds.This blog believes that solar power or a facility in need of repair is the best bet to replace this generating power.    http://www.aimco.com/   

Counterpath Solutions wins awards but not large earnings

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   This is a cellphone and Counterpath does not make cellphones they make “soft phones”that use the internet and are called Bria phones.They deliver voice and video for customers and is clearly more sophisticated than ordinary telephone.Although this solution is only for a select niche of phone users. However it has won several awards including the well known United Communications Product of the Year award for service providers.But it just released it’s first quarter 2020 results and they show a net loss of $.9 million compared to a net loss of $1 million in 2019.

     Other First Quarter Results

  Counterpath had a checkered quarter. Revenues were down 9% over 2018 while growth in recurring revenues was up by 14% over 2018.But there was a net loss of $.9 million or $.16 per share compared to a net loss of $1 million or $.17 per share in 2018.However they have released a new program called channel partner program and it is helping with expanded recurring revenue growth.

       The Balance Sheet

    It is this blog’s opinion that Counterpath(PATH) will have to make one or even two small acquisitions to add to it’s product line in order to grow total revenues and recurring revenues.They had a solid business in network routing decisions and seem to have let it drop.A small acquisition here might reinvigorate this business which would complement their softphone business.PATH  has lots of debt capacity and only 6 million outstanding shares.This is a small amount of shares for a growing technology company.But it is realized that it will be hard to find a small company that will be immediately accretive.

       Return to the old Business Model

        I did a blog on Counterpath Solutions in WordPress on January16,2018 in which PATH was trading in the $8.00 area.This blog thought that it would go higher but it spiked at $8.00 and returned to the $2.00 area. I had counted on continued business from their enhanced routing decision business.As they had earned a patent in 2017 for enhanced routing decisions.They  should have been able to use it to  earn increasing amounts of revenues and earnings.Instead they seem to have dropped this business;there is no mention of it in the quarterly report.

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                                                     In the January 2018 blog it was stated that “this blog has made several suggestions for an acquisition that might help to piggyback Counterpath’s product on to other server applications”.And this is what it should turn to.This company needs new products and increasing revenues.This blog suggests that it look closer at a combination with Esentire (network security) and Payfirma (online payments done by telephone).Counterpath may now look closer at one of these companies as it has considerable debt and equity capacity.              https://www.zacks.com/    

PSD takes a step up and needs another step

Pulse Seismic (PSD) had a tough year in 2018.Operating income was about half of a normal year like 2016.But it did make one quite good move.It bought Seitel Canada –  a exploration and small seismic information gathering company based in Calgary. Partly as  a result of this the first half of 2019 has been much better.It is not clear that Seitel added to 2019 earnings but it did add to revenues and EBITDA.But Pulse depends on oil exploration and the amount of exploration depends heavily on the price of oil.Oil prices have recovered somewhat in 2019.But this blog believes that PSD  should continue it’s diversification with other companies that bring with them new markets.This blog,on Website123 recommended that Pulse Data look closely at a combination of some kind with McCoy Global an Edmonton based company that is in somewhat of a downturn.And this blog believes that PSD might get a good price here.

 

 

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Second Quarter Highlights

Revenues for the quarter  of 2019 were about $11 million compared to $2 million in 2018 and $16 million for both quarters compared to $4 million for 2018.Net earnings were $3 million for Q2 of 2019 compared to a net loss of $1 million.While net earnings were $209,000 for the first half compared to a $1 million loss in 2018.Cash EBITDA was $12 million versus $1.4 million in 2018.Pulse Data did this while keeping long term debt down to a reasonable $30 million.$8 million in debt (including $5 million for Seitel) has been repaid in 2019.And Pulse tells shareholders that $25 million remains in their revolving credit facility.So their balance sheet looks quite attractive and useful for further acquisitions.

TO GO WITH AFP STORY: Commodities-oil-en

 

    The Rest of 2019

The usual method of calculating whether a stock is cheap or dear is to look at net income and use it to compare the P/E ratio with other investments.But the acquisition of Seitel at $65 million will have a significant impact on net income.So this blog recommends using EBITDA per share rather than e.p.s.In 2018 EBITDA per share was $.03 for six months and in 2019 it was $.23 per share.If the price of oil stays in it’s present range then EBITDA for 2019 should come in within a range of $.40 to $.50 per share.And this should make a price of $2.40 to $2.65 by yearend reasonable if Pulse Seismic continues as it has in the first half.This blog would not recommend a second acquisition in 2019.First all the kinks must be worked out with it’s present acquisition.Yet McCoy Global will be invited to meet with PSD before yearend and see how good a fit it really is.     http://www.aimco.com/

AltaGas meets RIPET contract and 2019 Guidance

EconothonII is the blog that I use to cover more technical areas . And Altagas (ALA) has a broad,complex operation that has some quite technical aspects.ALA just released it’s quarterly report and it discusses some very technical matters.Altagas tells investors that it opened it’s new propane export terminal on Ridley Island on the B.C. coast;it is the first marine export propane terminal in Canada.Altagas worked hard over 2 years to finish the terminal which delivers Montney gas in B.C. by rail to Ridley Island.Pembina Pipeline has a pipeline going from the Montney to Ridley Island but it is not clear whether AltaGas will move it’s product by pipeline later.

Meeting the RIPET Contract

Not only is RIPET open but AltaGas exported it’s first propane shipment in May and a further two shipments in June.Altagas (ALA) tells investors that  it plans on shipping two shiploads a month with the odd extra shipment in some months.It has a contract with the Japanese firm called Altamos for almost half of it’s RIPET capacity.Altagas believes it can meet a target of  shipping 40,000 bbl/day in 2019.The netback on shipments is not known but revenues in this quarter were up 40% over 2018.And EBITDA is up by 25%.As the project matures this blog sees that ALA will make a number of  adjustments or tweaks to increase revenues and earnings.         pexels-photo-257700.jpeg

Largely because of the success of their RIPET project and divesting about $2 billion of non-core assets AltaGas reiterates that their 2019 guidance will be met.They have guided to adjusted EBITDA of $1.2-$1.3 billion and funds from operations ( FFO) of $850-$950 million .Also  they have already sold about $1.5 billion of non-core assets in the first half of 2019 and have lined up a further $500 million for the second half.This has allowed AltaGas to reduce debt by $2.0 billion this year.If guidance is indeed met then adjusted EBITDA per share will be about $4.50 a share.Net income is irregularly high this quarter with the gains in income from the sale of assets and more sales expected in the second half.Using  adjusted EBITDA to measure earnings then the P/E ratio will fall to 5 from 20 in 2018 making ALA one of the cheapest Canadian utilities.This is before any improvements have been made to RIPET.

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      Changes to Come

AltaGas has some tremenduous assets but it also has a substantial amount of debt although $2 billion was reduced already in 2019.But changes still need to be made;for example, it needs to have a pipeline connection from the Montney to Ridley Island and not rely on the vagaries of rail.It also has a number of midstream assets that have to be  finalized such as their Townsend gas project(Q1 2020).At this time their utility business seems solid.And they just got a rate increase for their WGL utility. http://www.cppib.com/en/http://www.cppib.com/en

This quarter and to a lesser extent the next quarter will be highly influenced by the large sale of non-core assets as well as the addition to earnings from RIPET.Of secondary importance is finalizing the Townsend gas project and Petrogas.But that will help to create a bump up in earnings in 2020.This blog expects to see more details on RIPET netbacks and steady improvement on Townsend in Q3.Also AltaGas management may give shareholders more detail on further asset sales.This should be enough fuel to send ALA towards $22 by October and $24 by yearend.        https://www.brookfield.com/    

Tucows moves Ahead but Slowing Down A bit

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Like the lady above, Tucows is recalculating it’s strategy.True revenues for 6 months  of 2018 were ahead by 15% and adjusted EBITDA by almost 30% but Q2 figures were all down except for adjusted EBITDA.Still most investors know their financial performance was better than all other similar Canadian technology stocks.Tucows is still an anomaly amongst it’s peers in the technology scene but it could stand to make improvements to make it look like the stellar performer that it is.

   Quarterly Reports

Tucows  has performed better than most of the Canadian technology stocks over the last 2 years.But in one area it is found to be lacking.It’s quarterly reports show that it only has 2 revenue producing services – domaine names and mobile services.Most investors know that Tucows owns a good-sized variety of junior technology companies besides these two services.It is  in managing these junior tech. stocks that Tucows makes a large part of it’s earnings.But Tucows does not give investors a breakdown of it’s subsidiary’s revenues and earnings.This blog feels that by showing lack of sophistication it’s stock price has suffered.After all it’s earnings outpace companies like Kinaxis, Shopify, Descartes and Altius.But it’s P/E ratio is smaller.than all of these companies.Tucows earned $2.75 per share in 2017 and the highest of these other technology stocks is Kinaxis at $1.00 per share in 2017.Substantial sized companies like Mediagrif and Descartes only made $.48 and $.49 per share.

Tucow’s Second Quarter

Most of their financial indicators were average except for earnings per common share which was down 31%.But the most important indicator ,adjusted EBITDA, was up almost 10%.Still in comparison to most of Tucows quarters this was below trend.On the other hand,their 6 months performance was quite substantial.Revenues were up 15%,adjusted EBITDA up 29% and free cash flow up 46%.And it is on track to hit $2.00 to $2.25 per share for 2018.This may be down from 2017 but double it’s nearest competitor.It appears to this blog that investors are punishing Tucows unnecessarily as it’s P/E ratio is  very low in comparison to competitors many of which do not even have earnings.

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  Slowing Down but Ahead by a Mile

It is true that Tucows could use a few touch-ups but it’s performance is considerably better than all of it’s competitors.Tehnology companies trade at higher P/E multiples than most stocks because they have higher growth rates.Most technology companies do have higher growth rates.For example, Kinaxis has a P/E multiple of 100 times earnings and Descartes has a multiple of 101 times earnings.Even an established technology company like Open Text has a multiple of 44 but only e.p.s. of $.91 in 2017.But Tucows which has good established earnings of $2.59 per share has only a multiple of 27 times.Even a company like Mediagrif which has an almost steady growth rate has a P/E multiple of 20 times.So it is the opinion of this blog that Tucows deserves a P/E multiple of slightly less than Open Text or about 40 times earnings still much below Kinaxis and Descartes and not even close to Shopify which has negative earnings.Recently a German investment company called IGV has taken advantage of  it’s low multiple and bought a 10% share.They, like this blog believe that Tucows is trading at bargain prices.

  Conclusion

It is the opinion of this blog that Tucows (with it’s funny name) has an unsophisticated and unrepresentative image.It has not updated it’s quarterly report for many quarters.This company should be put in a category with Descartes and Altius Group which only have e.p.s of$.35. But both of which have a much higher multiple.And it should have a P/E ratio  closer to Open Text and to Kinaxis.This would raise it’s P/E to closer to 40 times earnings.And that would put Tucows into the $80s by November.

https://www.fairfax.ca/  ;

 

 

Go Easy Consumer Goods Okay;Go Easy Financials Grows Like Gangbusters

 

 

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Go Easy is a leading full service provider of goods and alternative financial services.I put it in this blog that covers new and more technical companies.As Go Easy has a small market capitalization compared to it’s peers.However it has made tremenduous strides in the past year.The consumer goods division seems to have steady growth but it’s financial services has made big gains in several areas.                                                                                                Growth over the Past Four Years

Goeasy has had tremenduous growth in revenues and earnings from 2014 to 2017.And it has expanded both the instore growth as well as the number of stores.And  performance this quarter was very good as well.Revenues were up 26% from Q2 in 2017 and consumer loans grew by $85 million or 122% over 2017.Their loan portfolio grew to $687 million or up 61% from June 2017.While operating income was $27 million for a 44% increase.In addition, Goeasy increased the size of their provision for future credit losses and their revolving credit facility went up from $110 to $175 million.The CEO says that “taken together, these activities provided the company with an additional $268 million in capital which is expected to fuel future growth.”

      2018 Outlook

The outlook is different for Goeasy consumer goods than for Goeasy Financial.The consumer goods division should be revamped but Goeasy financial is very well designed.GSY intends to add 40 to 60 new stores over the next 3 years and this fact should be incorporated into the new stores.But Goeasy is still doing just fine with it’s present setup.Earnings  were $1.58 per share for 6 months and on track to be in the $3.20 to $3.50 area for the full year.At it’s present P/E ratio this would put the price at $60 by next January.It’s present P/E ratio is 18 and this is high but justified by it’s high growth rate.This blog sees the P/E ratio staying constant and the price creeping up to $55 by October.                                                https://www.otpp.com/home      

Newalta is Ready for a Change

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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     Introduction  

Newalta is one of those new technical companies that I cover here in Econothon II. It traded  at about $20 a few years ago when oil was trading higher and it remained  at these prices when oil prices fell.It’s activities were focused around oil drilling and removal of waste on light and heavy oil sites.It had and continues to have a lot of equipment used to produce it’s revenues.So as oil prices and oil drilling activity pick up Newalta is highly leveraged to increase it’s revenues and earnings.Even at present prices it has increased adjusted EBITDA above 2016 and  2017 levels.In fact, Newalta’s guidance is for $50 to $60 million for 2018,given an oil price of $65 to $70 a barrel.A price above $70 a barrel will adjusted EBITDA higher than guidance.

First Quarter Results 

Newalta released it’s long awaited first quarter report on May 8.The reason it was long awaited was that Newalta had given some preliminary information on a merger with a company called Trevita.Shareholders wanted to hear about how good a deal it was or wasn’t.Revenues did not change that much(+2%) but adjusted EBITDA was up 21% from Q1 in 2017.And capital expenditures went from $2 million in 2017 to almost $9 million for 2018.NAL is counting on growth in 2018 and 2019.If Newalta meets it’s annual guidance then e.p.s will be $.60 to $.70 per share.And then a price of $ 2.00 to $2.75 is not unreasonable given it’s P/E ratio.                           Desert

The Deal

Newalta says that has entered into an agreement with Tervita in which Tervita will acquire all Newalta shares.Newal;ta share will be exchanged for .1467 of an Amalco share and.0307of an Amalco warrant to purchase 1 Amalco share.Newalta also tells us that at the AGM shareholders voted 99.83% in approval of this agreement.It looks as if the price put on Amalco shares is $18.75 per share.If this has been interpreted correctly then the valuation put on Newalta is about $3.35 per share.This is a good present evaluation and gives recognition to the fact that a rising price of oil will increase the earnings and share price of Newalta.Approval remains only for the Alberta Court of the Queen’s Bench.This blog believes that the merger will go through.                                                                        https://www.otpp.com/home

The New guy on the Electrical Block

      Alterra Power has not been around for long.It was formerly called Magma Energy and incorporated in 2008.It changed it’s name in 2011 and became Alterra Power.It has properties in Iceland and Canada and United States.It’s Icelandic property is 100% owned and it has equity stakes in five other properties.Recently it sold it’s 100% owned Soda Lake property.Now it owns 757 MW of generating capacity and has 1200 to 1700 MW in the construction stage.

       Operational Data  

            Alterra Power generates alternative sources of power:that includes hydro,geothermal,solar and wind power.Consolidated revenue grew by 5% to $61 million and net interest revenue by 12% to $81 million (including equity interests).More importantly adjusted EBITDA increased by 5% to $40 million.Hydro power generation was 93% of total availability.And in Iceland AXY just completed a deep well that added another 30 to 50MW of output to their plant.

         New Stuff

        Alterra has been busy in 2016.Jimmie Creek was completed in August in British Columbia and Kokomo,in Indiana, was in commercial operations in December.In addition, Flat Top wind project was started in Decmeber,2016.Also their Spartan solar project started construction in March,2017 and will be in commercial operation this year.

           USA Wind Projects

     This is by far their most ambitious project on the books.They have commenced construction in 2016 of several wind projects;it’s total generating capacity will be 1200 to 1700 MW of capacity.One of these is the Flat Top wind project (mentionned above). AXY will own 100% of several projects but only have a working interest in several others.Their total additional generating capacity is not yet known but it is probable that it will double their present capacity and likely almost triple it.This blog expects their generating capacity to be around 1500MW at the end of 2017 up from the present 575 MW.

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        Outlook for 2017 and 2018

     Alterra has a quite organized quarterly report and shows it’s outlook for 2017 and 2018 as well.It forecasts generating capacity of 1595MW for 2017 and 2046MW for 2018. It also forecasts revenues of $91 million for 2017 and $101 million for 2018.These figures seem about right but it’s forecast of adjusted EBITDA (earnings) for 2017 is only $49 million and for 2018 for only $57 million.This blog forecasts 2017 earnings of about $58 million or $1 a share versus 2016 earnings of about $.67 a share.With a moderate P/E of 10 or 11 this puts the price at the end of 2017 at $7 to $8 and $10 to $12 in mid-2018.Investors will know more by the end of the second quarter.                        this is for Brookfield Renewable;  use Econothon for business forecasts

Hydro One or Northland Power-who wins

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Below is a picture of Niagara Falls;that’s a lot of power.And there is a lot of power being generated from Hydro One and Northland Power.Which is the best investment today for potential investors?Well Hydro One was trading at about $22 per share in January and Northland Power was trading at about $19 per share.Hydro One (H) moved up about 19% to $26 per share while Northland Power (NPI) moved up about 30% to about $24.50 per share.On the other hand other analysts might say this is a comparison of apples to oranges;Hydro One has total assets of $24.3 billion while Northland Power has assets of only $7.4 billion which is less than half of Hydro One’s  size.But Northland has much more growth  over the last 3 years and will have even have more growth in the next year or two.The comparison has more than one slant to it.

Let’s look at the Statistics

They are trading close to each other’s price in today’s market;Hydro One at $26 and Northland at $24.50 and they will likely trade close to each other’s value for the rest of 2016.Both have a quarterly report coming up soon (in August) and this blog expects that H will show little growth in revenues and earnings although it did pick up some new assets in Q1.Northland Power also will show little new growth as their only major new revenues will be pre-completion revenues  from their new mega projects.Both Geminin (600 MW) and Nordsee One (332MW) will have pre-completion revenues in 2016 and be completed  by early 2017.

Hydro One’s yield is lower at 3.23% while NPI’s yield is about 4.5%.Northland will not change it’s dividend until 2017 but it is healthy now.There should be little growth in earnings for Hydro in this quarter and little growth for Northland.But since 2012 NPI’s earnings have grown about 300% while Hydro One’s earnings have had almost no growth at all.In addition, NPI’s net income (after interest and taxes) has risen 300% while Hydro’s net income has fallen.However the discrepancy comes when examining earnings per share and the price/earnings ratio.Hydro One has earnings per share of $1.46  which leads to a P/E ratio of 18.While the earnings of Northland Power show up on most financial websites as (.27) to (.30) per share and this leads to a price/earnings ratio of  minus 90.This is misleading as NPI did take a charge of $140 million in the last quarter but it should not have affected earnings only net income.A better estimate of earnings is to take 2015 EBITDA as a measure of earnings and that means that earnings per share were $1.45 per share for 2015 and the price/earnings ratio of 10.3.

The next Quarter

Earnings and other operational data for the second quarter will be out in a few weeks.Expect the NPI  earnings to be up to 25% ahead of the same quarter last year.Chiefly because of better results from their new Grand Bend project and pre-completion revenue from the Gemini  and the Nordsee One projects. Also moneys will be in from their  legal settlements in northern Ontario.Hydro One will also be ahead of Q2 in 2015 because of their new assets that were picked up in the first quarter.But not by as much.This should pull Northland ahead a little but the race will still be close until 2017.Loook for NPI to trade around the $25 to $26 level until the end of the year.And look for Hydro One to stay around the  $26 to $27 level.

The last Quarter

By the end of the last quarter this blog expects that Northland Power will be ahead in the race.This is where the race should change..Press releases should be coming in telling of the progress of Gemini and Nordsee One.It is possible that these two mega projects will come in ahead of schedule and less than budget.Northland has shown itself to be an excellent project manager.And there will be some earnings growth in this quarter as well.Whereas Hydro One will still only show their historical growth rate and so may come in with a 8 to 12% growth rate.As the year finishes this blog expects Northland Power to be in the $28 to $29 range where Hydro One may still be stalled in the $26 to $27 range.By January 1 this blog expects that Northland Power will win the race but may not quite be to $30.                                                                              use Econothon II to obtain analysis of Cdn. utilities;    see forecast of stock price for 2016